[dropcap]F[/dropcap]ebruary Average Wholesale Pricing (AWP) trended up nicely from January for all major product categories, which is typical spring season behavior. Interestingly, average prices were also below last February’s levels for most categories, which seems contradictory but in reality is not. The average model age grew somewhat year-over-year and preliminary MSRP for 2016 models coming through the auction is lower than previous years. This could be due to higher-priced new models not yet arriving at auction. It may also be because OEMs have limited MSRP growth to maintain price points that are attractive to consumers. Both factors contribute to the month-over-month rise and year-over-year decline for February. Overall, the mix of product and buyer appetite are healthy.
As expected, the wholesale price/book ratio in February was almost identical to last year when comparing auction prices to NADA Clean Wholesale values. Even with upcoming scheduled book adjustments, we are still forecasting 2016 prices to mirror 2015 in relation to book values.
Product mix by category appears to have reached an equilibrium, having held fairly steady over the last year with minor monthly fluctuations. The auction mix resembles the retail market, with domestic cruisers being the most common product type followed by sport bikes, metric cruisers, ATVs and other off-road products. This is in line with our belief that wholesale pricing will be fairly stable in 2016.
Based upon the data so far, the 2016 wholesale market is firing on all cylinders. While we believe the year will be stable and follow typical trends in pricing and volume; we think that the spring pricing peak will be softer than prior years. Buyers will be able to buy right throughout the season, and sellers will need to avoid wishful thinking to move inventory in a timely fashion.
All data provided by National Powersport Auctions. For more information, please visit www.npauctions.com or call (888) 292-5339
