For the third month in a row the off-road categories displayed positive year-over-year trends for Average Wholesale Pricing (AWP). In September, we see continued strength in the ATV and MX categories. ATVs jumped eight percent and the MX category increased 12 percent over last year.
The Side-x-Side segment was the only off-road segment that saw a decline year -over-year. We see similar trends in September’s AWP vs. the last 90 days – the ATV category increased four percent, the MX category increased by five percent and Side-x- Sides were down seven percent. The relative decline in Side-x- Side AWP has been consistent the last few months, something we recommend dealers monitor when taking trade-ins since the AWP is a little softer this year than last.
On-highway pricing followed established seasonal trends in September, with sport bikes returning closer to normal with a four percent increase in AWP year-over-year.
While metric cruisers only showed a small one percent decrease, domestic cruisers saw a three percent decrease and remain softer this year over last with domestic cruiser dealers reporting a continued glut of inventory.
When we compare the AWP for the on-highway categories to the past three months the figures are very similar to what we saw year-over-year. Sport bikes trended up two percent while metric and domestic cruisers trended down one percent and five percent respectively.
Unlike last month, when unexpected bumps in AWP for the Sport and ATV segments were due almost entirely to a premium product mix, the data suggests that the sustained higher AWP levels for ATV and MX segments are largely due to increased demand for those products.
This is reflected in the rise in Price/Book ratios from August to September, since book values tend to normalize product mix effects.
Historically, wholesale pricing tends to stay flat to slightly up this time of year and then rises as spring approaches.
No one knows for sure whether the seasonal inflection will take off in December or February, so it’s important to stay up to date on wholesale values as spring approaches. This time of year is also a great time to stock up on inventory from trades, street buying and auctions while prices remain comparatively low.
As the old adage goes, the money is made in the buy, so be sure you buy them right by doing your homework using the NPA Value Guide, NADAguides and your own market intelligence. This will also ensure that if you wind up not being able to retail the inventory, you can still break out of it if you end up wholesaling the unit or sending it to auction.
